AdVentures IndiA
08:40:00 AM Sunday May 20 2012
Adventures India
 
   




Rate of Change (Price)

ROC is a refinement of Momentum - readings fluctuate as percentages around the zero line. Further details are given at Construction .

The indicator is designed for use in ranging markets - to detect trend weakness and likely reversal points. However, when combined with a trend indicator, it can be used in trending markets.

Trading Signals

ROC trading signals are identical to Momentum signals.

Ranging Markets

First, you will need to set overbought and oversold levels based on your observation of past ranging markets. The levels should cut across at least two-thirds of the peaks and troughs.

  • Go long when ROC crosses to below the oversold level and then rises back above it.
  • Go long on bullish divergences - where the first trough is below the oversold level.
  • Go short when ROC crosses to above the overbought level and then falls back below it.
  • Go short on a bearish divergence - with the first peak above the overbought level.
  • Example 1

    FedEx is plotted with 10 day ROC indicator and  21 day exponential moving average .

    1. Go short [S] when ROC turns down above the overbought level. Place a stop-loss above the recent High.
    2. Go long [L] when ROC turns up from below the oversold level. Place a stop below the latest Low.
    3. Go short [S].
    4. Go long [L]. This proves a false signal as price falls below the recent Low - stopping out the position.
    5. Go long [L] when ROC again turns up from below the oversold level.
    6. Go short [S].
    Trending Markets

    First, identify the trend direction using a trend indicator . ROC tends to stay above zero during an up-trend and below zero during a down-trend.

    Only take signals in the direction of the trend.

  • In an up-trend, go long if ROC turns upwards when below zero.
  • In a down-trend, go short if ROC turns downward when above zero.
  • Use trailing buy and sell stops to time your entry and exit. Take profits on divergences and trend line breaks. Exit using a trend indicator. 

    Trend lines are sometimes drawn on ROC. A break in the trend line often occurs in advance of a similar break on the price chart.

    Example 2

    General Motors with  10 day ROC and  21 day exponential moving average .

    1. ROC turns up from below zero, providing an excellent first entry point in the trend. Go long [L].
    2. Take profits [P] on a bearish divergence.
    3. A triple divergence occurs - take more profits [P].
      Exit [X] when price closes below the MA.
    4. Go long [L] when ROC turns up below zero. Enter when price crosses above the MA and above the High of the signal day.
    5. Take profits [P] on a bearish divergence.
      Exit [X] when price closes below the MA.
    Setup

    See Indicator Panel for directions on how to set up the ROC indicator. The default indicator window is set at 12 days. Edit Indicator Settings explains how to alter the default settings.

    Trading Signals

    Signals are similar to Multiple Moving Averages :

    Convergence and Divergence

    The most important signals are taken from the spacing between the MAs in each group; not from crossovers.

    • When moving averages within a group are parallel and close together, the group are largely in agreement;
    • When the moving averages widen, this signals divergent views within the group;
    • When moving averages converge, this is a sign that the group view is changing.
    Trend strength
    • Parallel long-term MAs signal long-term investor support and a strong trend; and
    • Short-term MAs tend to bounce off the long-term MA group.
    Trend weakness
    • Both groups of MAs converge and fluctuate more than usual.
    Trend start
    • A change in price direction accompanied by expanding MAs in both groups.
    Short-term reversals
    • The short-term group cross over, diverge and then again converge; while the long-term group remain parallel.
    Example

    Aquarius Platinum Limited (AQP) is shown with Rainbow 3D Moving Averages.

    1. Short-term retracement gives an entry signal (long)
    2. Another short-term retracement
    3. Moving averages diverge, increasing risk of a reversal
    4. Strong retracement indicates changing short and medium term views, but long-term view holds firm
    5. Short-term retracement signals recovery
    6. Moving averages diverge, warning of another reversal
    Setup

    Select File >> Open Project >> [Rainbow 3D MA] or

    • use the F5 shortcut key to open the File menu; or
    • click the >>>>> button next to project tabs .
     
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